The Chinese version is below the English version.

Know-How on China’s Future Liberalization and Democracy

When it comes to China’s future democratization, almost all overseas Chinese democracy activists and most Western observers who care about China believe that there are only two possibilities: either the overthrow of the CCP regime or the collapse of the CCP regime from within. However, the fact is that nearly four decades have passed, and neither of these two possibilities has happened.

Moreover, in the past four decades, there have been at least three major failures in the outside world’s predictions about China: first, the continued development of China’s economy will inevitably bring about the reform of the political system, so that the CCP will transform from an autocratic system to a democratic system; second, the growth of the middle class will inevitably bring about the awakening of rights awareness, which will correspondingly lead to the increase of the middle class’s enthusiasm for political participation; third, the popularization of the Internet will inevitably bring about the popularization of universal values ​​such as freedom, democracy, rule of law, constitutionalism, and human rights, thereby preparing the social ideological foundation for China’s democratization. Unfortunately, these not only did not happen, but also developed in the opposite direction.

In this case, what basis is there to believe that the CCP regime will collapse from within, or who can overthrow the CCP regime? We are not prophets, but we should learn lessons from history and gain experience, wisdom and insight in reality.

Those who believe that the CCP regime will collapse from within or must be overthrown ignore the fact that there are countless other possible permutations and combinations of changing China. Their knowledge and understanding of China, human history, and the nature of human nature limit their imagination and, accordingly, their ability to act. It is also important to note that they are seriously out of touch with the real society of China. All these combined only produce one result: serious cognitive deviations lead to serious deviations in actions, so no matter how long the action lasts, it cannot achieve its established goals, and may even bring about the opposite result. Just as a doctor’s wrong diagnostic thinking and direction for a patient will inevitably lead to wrong diagnosis and treatment plans, which will not only fail to treat the patient, but even make the patient’s condition worse, it is a similar principle.

Liberal democratic constitutionalism is a technology and art that highly combines ideals with reality. The vast majority of Chinese people have not even started in this regard. In terms of actual technical capabilities, they may still be in the kindergarten stage. Nearly 40 years have passed, and China has not even started the democratic process. It is not surprising now.

CPP hopes that all aspiring people will master the know-how that can enable China to achieve freedom and democracy, but now is not the time. However, the CPP can tell the world the five key factors that prevent China from achieving freedom, democracy and constitutionalism (which can be derived into five guidelines):

1. If a sustained change in worldview cannot be triggered in China, China cannot achieve freedom, democracy and constitutionalism.
2. If there is no broad mass base in China, China cannot achieve freedom, democracy and constitutionalism.
3. If at least 10% of the private economic forces that contribute more than 70% to China’s employment, taxation and scientific and technological innovation cannot be won over in the first stage, China cannot achieve freedom, democracy and constitutionalism.
4. If the liberal faction within the CCP regime (especially those with social democratic tendencies) is not won over, China cannot achieve freedom, democracy and constitutionalism.
5. If there is no unified party with a sense of mission, a spirit of sacrifice, unity and execution that can achieve the above goals, China cannot achieve freedom, democracy and constitutionalism.

The upcoming liberalization and democratization of China may be the most significant event in human history, and also the most difficult thing. Its difficulty is beyond imagination. It is described as “as difficult as ascending to the sky” in an ancient Chinese saying. In the past nearly 40 years, countless Chinese people have struggled, worked hard, and sacrificed for it, but the fact that China’s liberalization and democratization process has not even started yet can fully illustrate this point. Here, an obvious paradoxical dilemma is that if aspiring people engage in democratic movements in China, they will soon lose their freedom and be in a dangerous situation of being imprisoned and isolated. They will not be able to continue to engage in democratic movements, and all their efforts will eventually return to zero. If they engage in democratic movements abroad, even after two generations, they will not be able to obtain the most basic mass base in China, so they cannot achieve a breakthrough from zero. So far, no one who is committed to promoting freedom and democracy in China has broken through this dilemma.

Undoubtedly, China’s liberalization and democratization requires the following qualities from those who are engaged in this movement: lofty ideals and sense of mission, firm beliefs and will, clear vision and goals, dedication to sacrifice, noble moral appeal, and persistent efforts. None of these qualities can be missing. However, these qualities alone are still not enough. It is like, even if you have the above qualities, if you do not have the relevant technical capabilities and means, if you do not have systematic know-how, then no matter how long it takes, no matter how much effort you put in, it is impossible to build a precision lithography machine. This is the same reason.

China’s liberalization and democratization is very difficult, it can be said to be “difficult as climbing to the sky”. But on the other hand, it may be easier than imagined, even much easier than imagined. At least, it is not that difficult to ignite the fuse of China’s liberalization and democratization, or in other words, the first step of the first stage of China’s liberalization and democratization is not that difficult. Unfortunately, in the past 40 years, many people did not take the right first step. Therefore, either a slight mistake leads to a thousand miles, or they go in the opposite direction and finally lose their way. What is even more regrettable is that for 40 years, countless people who originally had the ideal of freedom and democracy have not yet achieved a breakthrough in their struggle with the CCP (there is still no legal organization in the 9.6 million square kilometers of China). In sharp contrast, they seem to have accumulated considerable experience in internal strife, internal consumption, and internal chaos. Things should not be like this.

Therefore, from now on, the China Progressive Party proposes a new set of [4 standards for measuring cognitive and practical results], including the following 4 groups of questions:

1. Will all actions ultimately lead to less or more freedom in China?
2. Will all actions ultimately lead to less or more democracy in China?
3. Will all actions ultimately lead to China’s rule of law retreating or progressing?
4. Will all actions ultimately lead to China’s freedom and democracy being weakened or even disappearing, or growing stronger? Will the authoritarian, autocratic, and totalitarian forces eventually become more consolidated, strengthened, and powerful, or weakened, loosened, and disintegrated?

Given the difficulty and complexity of China’s liberalization and democratization, there is no doubt that the realization of this lofty mission requires a long process. One or two years, three or five years cannot achieve the goal at all. However, if after one or two decades, or thirty or forty years, China’s liberalization and democratization process has not only not started, but has regressed significantly on the original basis, then there must be something wrong with both epistemology and methodology. This is why the China Progressive Party believes that a set of systematic Know-How is crucial.

Here, the China Progressive Party pays high tribute to all the predecessors who have sacrificed and worked hard for China’s freedom and democracy in the past forty years. However, from now on, the China Progressive Party will use new thinking and new methods to create a new situation and open up a new era of China’s liberal democratic constitutionalism.

There is no doubt that the upcoming liberalization and democratization process in China will be one of the most significant events in human history. It will be equivalent to recreating a brand new free China. In the long run, its historical significance may be no less than the Glorious Revolution in England in 1688, the American Revolution in 1776, the French Revolution in 1798, or at least no less than the great process of the transformation of former Eastern European communist countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and the three Baltic countries into liberal democratic systems and integration into free Europe after 1991.

Anyone who responds in a positive and positive way and participates in the upcoming liberalization and democratization process in China is blessed, and their names will be recorded in the glorious history of human progress!

谈到将来中国的民主化，几乎整个海外中国民运人士，以及大多关切中国的西方观察者都认为只有两种可能，要么推翻中共政权，要么中共政权从内部瓦解崩溃。然而事实是，近四十年过去了，这两种可能都没有发生。

并且，过去四十年来，外界对中国的预测至少还有三个重大的落空：一是中国经济的持续发展必然带来政治制度的改革，使中共由专制向民主制度转型；二是中产阶级的壮大必然带来权利意识的觉醒，相应的导致中产阶级对政治参与热情的提高；三是互联网的普及必然带来自由、民主、法治、宪政、人权这些普世价值的普及，从而为中国的民主化准备社会思想基础。遗憾的是，这些不仅没有发生，不仅如此，还朝着相反的方向发展。

既然如此，有什么根据认为中共政权会从内部瓦解，或者有谁能够推翻中共政权呢？我们都不是先知，但我们应该从历史中吸取教训，在现实中增长经验、智慧和洞见。

上述认为中共政权会从内部瓦解崩溃或必须推翻中共政权的人，忽视了这个世界还有另外无数种改变中国的排列组合的可能，他们对中国和人类历史、人性本质的认识和理解，限制了他们的想象力，相应的，也制约了他们的行动力。同样不可忽视的，是他们跟中国的真实社会已经严重脱节，这些综合起来只产生一个结果：认知的严重偏差造成行动的严重偏离，故而无论行动多久，都不能达到其既定目标，甚至带来相反的结果。正如医生对病人错误的诊断思路和方向，必然导致错误的诊疗方案，不仅不能治疗患者，甚至反而让患者的病情恶化，是类似的原理。

自由民主宪政是一门把理想跟现实高度结合的技术和艺术，绝大多数中国人在这方面甚至还没有起步，在实际的技术能力上，他们可能还处于幼儿园的阶段。近40年过去了，中国甚至还没有开启民主进程，现在看来也不算奇怪。

CPP希望有志者都掌握能够让中国实现自由民主的Know-How，但现在不是时候。然而，CPP可以告诉这个世界，不能实现中国自由民主和宪政的5大关键因素（可推导为5个指南）：

1.如果不能在中国引发一场持续的世界观级别的观念变革，中国不可能实现自由民主和宪政。
2.如果在中国国内没有广泛的群众基础，中国不可能实现自由民主和宪政。
3.如果第一阶段不能把对中国的就业、纳税、科技创新做出贡献都超过70%的民营经济力量的至少10%争取过来，中国不可能实现自由民主和宪政。
4.如果不把中共政权体制内的开明派（尤其是有社民主义倾向的人士）争取过来，中国不可能实现自由民主和宪政。
5.如果没有一个能实现上述目标的有使命感、有牺牲精神、团结一致、有执行力的统一的政党，中国不可能实现自由民主和宪政。

将要到来的中国的自由民主化可能是人类历史最重大的事件，也是最困难的事情，其难度超乎想象，用中国的古话形容就是“难于上青天”，过去近40十年，无数中国人为之奋斗、努力、牺牲，但至今中国的自由民主化进程甚至还没有启动的事实，可以充分说明这一点。这里，一个显而易见的悖论式的困境是：有志者如果在中国国内从事民主运动，必定会很快失去自由，并处于身陷囹圄、孤立无援的危险境地，必将无法继续从事民主运动，最终其一切努力将归零。如果在国外从事民主运动，即使经过两代人的时间，也无法在国内获得最基本的群众基础，因此无法实现零的突破。迄今为止，还没有任何有志于推动中国自由民主的人突破了这个困境。

无疑，中国的自由民主化需要从事这个运动的人具备下列特质：崇高的理想与使命感，坚定的信念和意志，清晰的远景和目标，勇于牺牲的奉献精神，高尚的道德感召力，持之以恒的努力，这些特质缺一不可。然而，光有这些特质仍然是不够的，这就好比，就算具备上述特质，如果不具备相关的技术能力和手段，如果没有系统化的Know-How，那么无论耗费多长的时间，不管付出多少努力，也绝不可能造出一台精密的光刻机，这是同样的道理。

中国的自由民主化很难很难，可以说“难于上青天”。但另一方面，它也可能比想象的要容易，甚至比想象得要容易得多，至少，点燃中国自由民主化的导火线并没有那样难，或者说，中国自由民主化第一阶段的第一步并没有那样难。遗憾的是，过去40年来，许多人正是在第一步就没有走对。所以，不是失之毫厘，谬之千里，就是南辕北辙，最后迷失了方向。更可惜的是，40年了，无数当初怀着自由民主理想的人跟CCP的斗争至今还没有实现零的突破（在960万平方公里的神州大地上，至今还没有一个合法的组织的存在），与此形成鲜明对比，在内斗、内耗、内乱方面似乎却积累了相当丰富的经验。事情本来不应如此。

因此，从现在开始，中华进步党倡议一套新的【衡量认知与实践结果的4个标准】，包含以下4组问题：
1.一切行动，最终导致中国的自由度是更少了，还是更多了？
2.一切行动，最终导致中国的民主是更少了，还是更多了？
3.一切行动，最终导致中国的法治后退了，还是进步了？
4.一切行动，最终导致中国的自由民主力量是削弱甚至消失了，还是发展壮大了？最终导致独裁专制极权势力是更加巩固、强化、强大了，还是被削弱、松动、瓦解了？

鉴于中国自由民主化的艰巨和复杂，毫无疑问这个崇高的使命的实现需要一个较长的过程，一两年、三五年根本无法实现目标，但如果一二十年、三四十年过去后，中国的自由民主化进程不仅没有开始启动，反而在原有基础上明显退步，那肯定就是认知论和方法论都出问题了。这就是为什么中华进步党认为一套系统的Know-How至关重要的原因。

在此，中华进步党向过去凡四十年来为了中国的自由民主而付出牺牲、努力的一切先辈致以崇高的敬意，但从现在起，中华进步党将用新的思维、新的方式开创新的局面，开辟一个中国自由民主宪政化的新的纪元。

毫无疑问，将要到来的中国的自由民主化进程将是人类历史最重大的事件之一，这将相当于再造一个全新的自由的中国，长远来看，其历史意义可能将不亚于1688年的英国光荣革命，1776年的美国独立革命，1798年的法国大革命，或者，至少不亚于1991年后波兰、捷克、波罗的海三国等前东欧共产主义国家转型为自由民主制度并融入自由欧洲的伟大进程。

任何以积极、正面的方式回应，并有份于将要到来的中国的自由民主化进程的人都是有福的，他们的名字必将铭记于人类进步历史的光辉史册！